The IMF warns that inflation in Pakistan could surge to 6.3%, up from the current 4.5%. According to its latest assessment, by June 2026, the inflation rate might escalate further to 8.9%, a major concern compared to June 2025, when inflation was at 3.2%.

The fund’s updated projections also suggest economic growth may hover around 3.2%, while unemployment may drop from 8% to 7.5%. On the fiscal front, the IMF foresees the tax revenue share rising to 16.3% and the fiscal deficit narrowing to 4%. The external debt burden could remain around 69.6% of GDP, while foreign-exchange reserves may increase to US$17.8 billion.

These projections underscore that while growth and job creation may show slight improvement, rising inflation remains a serious challenge for households across Pakistan.