Pakistan’s inflation is expected to accelerate to 9.1% year-on-year in July, as higher food prices and renewed uncertainty over global energy markets add fresh pressure to the cost of living, according to market estimates by Growth Securities and JS Global.

Economists expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to record a 1.1% month-on-month increase, largely driven by seasonal rises in the prices of tomatoes, potatoes, onions, and chicken. While lower petrol and LPG prices are expected to provide some relief, analysts say food inflation will remain the primary driver of headline inflation during the month.

JS Global also warned that renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could push imported energy costs higher, posing an additional risk to Pakistan’s inflation outlook. The brokerage expects transport inflation to increase sharply on an annual basis, while food inflation is also projected at around 9.1%.

Despite the expected rise in inflation, both Growth Securities and JS Global anticipate that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 11.5% during its upcoming monetary policy meeting. Analysts believe the current positive real interest rate supports a cautious approach, although any further escalation in Middle East tensions could alter the inflation trajectory.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) eased to 9.66% year-on-year. However, inflation remained in double digits for lower-income households, highlighting the continued burden of rising living costs despite some moderation in overall price pressures.