The recently announced trade agreement between the United States and India, championed by U.S. President Donald Trump, could deal a major blow to Russian oil revenue, as New Delhi’s imports of Russian crude have already fallen sharply, analysts say. According to market data, India’s Russian oil imports dropped around 22% in December from November, marking the lowest level since early 2023 and reducing Russia’s share of Indian crude purchases.

Under the deal, Washington has cut punitive tariffs on Indian goods, including those previously linked to Moscow’s energy exports, as part of broader tariff reductions to support U.S.-India trade ties. Trump has also said India would move away from buying Russian oil, though New Delhi continues to emphasise energy security and diversification rather than an outright halt.

If India significantly decreases its Russian oil purchases, Moscow would face greater pressure to lower prices or find alternative buyers, with China being the most notable, albeit limited, market.